Here is the wind direction and speed on the two days...the paddler left Oak Bay Marina at around 12PM on Monday Jan 29,
observations at Victoria Gonzales...put in was Oak Bay Marina...
Note: 23 tens of degrees is 230 degrees, which is approximately SW
Wind direction before Noon, was more easterly. After 2PM, quick veer to SW with rapidly rising wind to 25knots.
Conditions seem reasonable for a several hour paddle off Oak Bay...around the Bird Islets perhaps.
High slack turning to ebb around noon, but low currents probably until at least 2PM, then accelerating ebb flushing oak bay water through Trial Island/Golf course toward the Breakwater, which would convey the accident victim in that direction for many hours...conceivably. Seems unlikely the victim would have paddled through the TrialIsland/Golf course passage area with the intent to buck the ebb coming back, and would have faced oncoming SW wind in the afternoon, with opposing tidal current vs wind in late afternoon. Late afternoon in there would have been quite rough, coming through Trial Island/Golf course toward Harling Pt.
Body was discovered on Jan 30 at Gonzales Bay. Wearing PFD.
Date/Time Wind Dir (10s deg) Wind Spd (km/h)
1/29/2018 0:00 12 8
1/29/2018 1:00 36 12
1/29/2018 2:00 1 20
1/29/2018 3:00 1 17
1/29/2018 4:00 2 12
1/29/2018 5:00 36 11
1/29/2018 6:00 3 3
1/29/2018 7:00 4 12
1/29/2018 8:00 34 14
1/29/2018 9:00 6 4
1/29/2018 10:00 29 3
1/29/2018 11:00 6 5
1/29/2018 12:00 8 9
1/29/2018 13:00 11 4
1/29/2018 14:00 24 26
1/29/2018 15:00 27 23
1/29/2018 16:00 26 30
1/29/2018 17:00 25 37
1/29/2018 18:00 27 40
1/29/2018 19:00 25 31
1/29/2018 20:00 23 39
1/29/2018 21:00 26 31
1/29/2018 22:00 25 33
1/29/2018 23:00 26 29
1/30/2018 0:00 24 32
1/30/2018 1:00 21 24
1/30/2018 2:00 19 17
1/30/2018 3:00 20 20
1/30/2018 4:00 19 19
1/30/2018 5:00 20 27
1/30/2018 6:00 26 26
1/30/2018 7:00 29 10
1/30/2018 8:00 27 20
1/30/2018 9:00 24 27
1/30/2018 10:00 25 29
1/30/2018 11:00 23 41
1/30/2018 12:00 25 25
1/30/2018 13:00 24 27
1/30/2018 14:00 23 26
1/30/2018 15:00 26 29
1/30/2018 16:00 22 36
1/30/2018 17:00 23 34
1/30/2018 18:00 25 23
1/30/2018 19:00 25 23
1/30/2018 20:00 25 24
1/30/2018 21:00 27 9
1/30/2018 22:00 28 14
1/30/2018 23:00 28 17
I am tracking down the type of boat the paddler had..a Necky <something>, reported to be not super stable..
I have paddled with the individual concerned on the outer side of Effingham Island in the Broken Group with a following sea of 7-8ft wind waves overlaid on low swell, with following wind. And the individual has paddled extensively on the coast.